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General

Study Overview

Title:

Measuring and Enhancing Mobility in Dakar

Study is 3ie funded:

No

Study ID:

RIDIE-STUDY-ID-5c32f4a6af8f5

Initial Registration Date:

01/07/2019

Last Update Date:

01/04/2019

Study Status:

In Development

Location(s):

Senegal

Abstract:

The Government of Senegal (GoS) has prioritized improving urban mobility in the Greater Dakar Area (GDA) due to its crucial importance for the development of the Senegalese economy, and it is embarking on two large infrastructure projects: a Bus Rapid Transit System (BRT) and a Regional Express Train (TER) that will fundamentally transform the GDA. The study investigates the impacts of the two new transit systems on housing prices, relocation, accessibility to jobs, services and markets, and economic well-being. Given that the two projects we are evaluating are flagship projects for Senegal, the impact evaluation will be critical for these agencies to understand the effects of these large investments.

Registration Citation:

Milusheva, S., 2019. Measuring and Enhancing Mobility in Dakar. Registry for International Development for Impact Evaluations (RIDIE). Available at: 10.23846/ridie162

Categories:

Transportation
Urban Development

Additional Keywords:

Secondary ID Number(s):

Principal Investigator(s)

Name of First PI:

Sveta Milusheva

Affiliation:

World Bank

Name of Second PI:

Affiliation:

Study Sponsor

Name:

World Bank

Study Sponsor Location:

United States

Research Partner

Name of Partner Institution:

CETUD

Type of Organization:

Government agency (eg., statistics office, Ministry of Health)

Location:

Senegal

Intervention

Intervention Overview

Intervention:

The main intervention is the building of the Bus Rapid Transit system and the Express Train in Dakar, which aim to increase urban mobility within the Greater Dakar Area. The length of the BRT is 18.3km and the length of the TER is 36 km to Diamniadio and 55 km to the new airport (AIBD). Travel time along the full length of the BRT is expected to be reduced from 95 min to 45 min and improvements in both pollution and road safety are expected. The beneficiaries are expected to be all residents of the Greater Dakar Area, but especially those living along the routes of the BRT and TER.

Theory of Change:

The most immediate effect of the intervention will be to reduce transportation costs and encourage public transit ridership. This will allow greater urban mobility within the city of Dakar with residents having better access to amenities, public and private goods and services. The more efficient urban transport system will reduce frictions in Dakar’s labor market. Job search will be less costly and access to information for firms and potential employees easier. This in turn should lead to superior individual labor market outcomes and earnings, better matching between firms and workers, higher productivity as a consequence, as well as agglomeration economies in the medium to long run. This will in turn lead to better economic well-being for those households that can benefit from the the BRT and TER. The change in employment and market access in areas located in the vicinity of BRT bus stops and TER stations will likely increase local demand for land and housing. This ought to materialize in higher land and property prices in the short to medium run, and a different neighborhood composition in terms of households and firms in the longer run. The above-mentioned impacts are quite likely to be heterogeneous across individual characteristics and geographical location. For example, marginalized populations might be priced out and not able to benefit from the new transit modes, while upper class households might not be willing to ride public transport modes and prefer the use of their own cars, leading to effects being concentrated among middle-income households. There may also be differences in effect size based on gender, age or other characteristics.

Multiple Treatment Arms Evaluated?

No

Implementing Agency

Name of Organization:

CETUD and APIX

Type of Organization:

Public Sector, e.g. Government Agency or Ministry

Intervention Timing

Intervention or Program Started at time of Registration?

No

Start Date:

01/01/2020

End Date:

Evaluation Method

Evaluation Method Overview

Primary (or First) Evaluation Method:

Difference in difference/fixed effects

Other (not Listed) Method:

Additional Evaluation Method (If Any):

Other (not Listed) Method:

Method Details

Details of Evaluation Approach:

The research design is a difference-in-differences model. We will compare changes in outcomes over time for areas or individuals located near newly opened bus stops and train stations (the ‘treated’ units) to changes in outcomes for areas or individuals unaffected and/or farther away (the ‘control’ units). Having multiple observations over time for the same units permits us to concentrate on changes in outcomes and difference out all fixed characteristics that differ between treatment and controls and that may be correlated with treatment.

Outcomes (Endpoints):

Primary outcomes include housing prices; long-term relocation; job search and job retention; weekly hours/days worked and earnings; monthly spending; wealth index; time to reach closest school, hospital, and market; cost to reach closest school, hospital and market; and BRT ridership. Intermediary outcomes include public transport ridership; and transport mode choice. Secondary outcomes include type of employment or work engaged in; change in asset ownership; number of amenities within a 30 min distance; and satisfaction with and opinion about the public transport system.

Unit of Analysis:

Main units of analysis are individuals and households.

Hypotheses:

1. The BRT/TER increase use of public transport and improve mobility 2. The BRT/TER increase accessibility to jobs, health facilities, schools, and markets 3. Property and rental prices increase near BRT and TER stops 4. Lower income individuals move away from areas near BRT and TER stops and higher income individuals move into these area 5. The BRT/TER change the welfare of households

Unit of Intervention or Assignment:

Distance from the BRT and TER lines.

Number of Clusters in Sample:

Number of Individuals in Sample:

There will be 4000 households with up to two individuals surveyed per household.

Size of Treatment, Control, or Comparison Subsamples:

Around 2000 households in treatment and 2000 households in control.

Supplementary Files

Analysis Plan:

Data

Outcomes Data

Description:

We will be using a household survey collected by the implementing organization that will measure outcomes at the household level and individual level for two people in the household. Questions include sections on detailed location of household, household composition, housing characteristics, household income and expenditures, accessibility, employment, utilization of urban transport and contact information. There will be a baseline and an endline.

Data Already Collected?

No

Data Previously Used?

Data Access:

Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?

Data Approval Process:

Approval Status:

Treatment Assignment Data

Participation or Assignment Information:

No

Description:

The survey will contain the GPS location of the household which can be used to measure the distance of the household from the BRT and TER lines and determine if the household should be considered treatment or control depending on the distance.

Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?

No

Data Previously Used?

Data Access:

Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?

Data Approval Process:

Approval Status:

Data Analysis

Data Analysis Status:

Study Materials

Upload Study Materials:

Registration Category

Registration Category:

Prospective, Category 1: Data for measuring impacts have not been collected

Completion

Completion Overview

Intervention Completion Date:

Data Collection Completion Date:

Unit of Analysis:

Clusters in Final Sample:

Total Observations in Final Sample:

Size of Treatment, Control, or Comparison Subsamples:

Findings

Preliminary Report:

Preliminary Report URL:

Summary of Findings:

Paper:

Paper Summary:

Paper Citation:

Data Availability

Data Availability (Primary Data):

Date of Data Availability:

Data URL or Contact:

Access procedure:

Other Materials

Survey:

Survey Instrument Links or Contact:

Program Files:

Program Files Links or Contact:

External Link:

External Link Description:

Description of Changes:

Study Stopped

Date:

Reason: