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General

Study Overview

Title:

Impact evaluation of the switch from restricted to unrestricted cash transfers in the Kalobeyei settlement

Study is 3ie funded:

No

Study ID:

RIDIE-STUDY-ID-5de6014a45563

Initial Registration Date:

12/03/2019

Last Update Date:

12/07/2021

Study Status:

Completed

Change History for Status

Changed On	Previous Value
12/09/2020	In Development

Location(s):

Kenya

Abstract:

Two modalities of food assistance are currently co-exiting in Kalobeyei. Bamba Chakula is a programme of mobile money transfers which is restricted to food items (excluding alcohol and tobacco) and to specific shops that have a contract with WFP. About 7,000 households in Kalobeyei are currently benefiting from this cash transfer programme.

From June 2019, the Bamba Chakula transfers have been replaced by cash transfers on Equity Bank accounts for about 1050 households living in Kalobeyei Village 3, Neighbourhood 1-27. The cash transfers are "unrestricted", in the sense that they can be spent on any type of goods and anywhere in Kalobeyei. 

This research project aims to assess the impact of the switch to "unrestricted" cash transfers in Kalobeyei. We will compare households receiving food assistance in cash on an Equity Bank account (treatment group) to households receiving food assistance through Bamba Chakula (control group).

Registration Citation:

Sterck, O., 2019. Impact evaluation of the switch from restricted to unrestricted cash transfers in the Kalobeyei settlement. Registry for International Development for Impact Evaluations (RIDIE). Available at: 10.23846/ridie190

Categories:

Health, Nutrition, and Population
Social Protection

Additional Keywords:

cash transfers, vouchers, Kalobeyei, Kakuma

Secondary ID Number(s):

Principal Investigator(s)

Name of First PI:

Olivier Sterck

Affiliation:

University of Oxford

Name of Second PI:

Affiliation:

Study Sponsor

Name:

WFP Kenya

Study Sponsor Location:

Kenya

Research Partner

Name of Partner Institution:

WFP Kenya

Type of Organization:

Foreign or Multilateral Aid Agency

Location:

Kenya

Intervention

Intervention Overview

Intervention:

Two modalities of food assistance are currently co-exiting in Kalobeyei. Bamba Chakula is a programme of mobile money transfers which is restricted to food items (excluding alcohol and tobacco) and to specific shops that have a contract with WFP. About 7,000 households in Kalobeyei are currently benefiting from this cash transfer programme.

From June 2019, the Bamba Chakula transfers have been replaced by cash transfers on Equity Bank accounts for about 1050 households living in Kalobeyei Village 3, Neighbourhood 1-27. The cash transfers are "unrestricted", in the sense that they can be spent on any type of goods and anywhere in Kalobeyei. 

Private Intervention Details:

Theory of Change:

(a) Direct treatment effects on consumption of food and non-food items

The switch to unrestricted cash transfers (UCT) is expected to have two types of effects on beneficiaries. First, a substitution effect, away from food consumption and towards the consumption of other goods. Second, a positive wealth effect for those who were previously reselling food items purchased using Bamba Chakula to be able to purchase non-food items. The sum of substitution and wealth effects on food consumption can be positive or negative. 

(b) Indirect treatment effects within households

Household members might have different preferences about the consumption of food and non-food items. The fact that non-food items becomes more accessible thanks to unrestricted cash transfers may generate conflicts within households whose members might have different preferences over food and non-food items. While the effects on consumption of food and non-food items should increase household welfare, increase in within-household tensions might reduce subjective well-being, especially for those who lost bargaining power because of the change.

 (c) Findings from preliminary qualitative research and implications on research hypotheses

Our qualitative research revealed the existence of strong credit relationships between refugees and shopkeepers that are likely to undermine the impacts of the switch.

Multiple Treatment Arms Evaluated?

No

Implementing Agency

Name of Organization:

WFP and UNHCR in partnership with Safaricom and Equity Bank

Type of Organization:

Foreign or Multilateral Aid Agency

Program Funder

Name of Organization:

WFP

Type of Organization:

Foreign or Multilateral Aid Agency

Intervention Timing

Intervention or Program Started at time of Registration?

Yes

Start Date:

06/02/2019

End Date:

Evaluation Method

Evaluation Method Overview

Primary (or First) Evaluation Method:

Natural experiment

Other (not Listed) Method:

Additional Evaluation Method (If Any):

Regression with controls

Other (not Listed) Method:

Method Details

Details of Evaluation Approach:

Given the absence of randomized assignment to treatment, we are relying on quasi-experimental methods to identify the impact of the switch to unrestricted cash transfers. We will use two strategies to minimize bias resulting from pre-existing differences between the treatment and the control groups.

(1) We will exploit the quasi-random variation in the allocation of refugees upon arrival.

(2) We will use control variables and panel data methods to control for differences between the control and treatments groups that are not due to the switch to unrestricted cash transfers.

More details are provided in the pre-analysis plan.

Private Details of Evaluation Approach:

Outcomes (Endpoints):

In line with the theory of change, we assess the impact of the switch to unrestricted cash transfers on the following outcome variables (expected direction of impact in parentheses):

• Food expenditures per household member (+)
• Dietary variety (?)
• Calories intake per adult equivalent (?)
• Value of food consumption per adult equivalent (?)
• Food insecurity (?)
• Expenditures on sodas, alcohol, restaurant, tobacco and leisure (+)
• Non-food expenditures & transfers (+)
• Assets holding (+)
• Asset purchases (+)
• Savings (+)
• Credit (-)
• Resale of food assistance (-)
• Dummy for payment to authorities (+)
• Women taking important decisions (?)
• Disagreements about decision-making (+)
• Subjective wellbeing (?)
• Has a job dummy  (+)

The construction of outcome variables is described in the pre-analysis plan.

Unit of Analysis:

Refugee households and individuals

Hypotheses:

In line with the theory of change, we hypothesize that the treatment will have the effects:

• A reduction in food expenditures
• Uncertain effect on food consumption indicators
• Increase in consumption of alcohol, tobacco, and non-food items
• Increase in assets purchases and assets holding
• Increase in savings
• Reduction in the re-sale of items previously bought or received
• Short-term increase in employment and entrepreneurship 
• Changes in intra-household decision-making
• Increased tensions within households about the use of transfers
• Uncertain effect of the treatment on subjective well-being

Furthermore, we anticipate the following observations:

• Households who have a credit line with a shopkeeper always use the same shopkeeper for purchases paid using Bamba Chakula or Equity Bank transfers.
• The value of what they receive per month from retailers is lower.
• For these households, the switch to unrestricted cash has no effect.
• We anticipate that the effects of the treatment will be very small or null because many households are indebted. Many do not have the control over their Bamba Chakula sim cards or Equity Bank cards. For this reason, very few households end up withdrawing cash using their Equity Bank card.

Unit of Intervention or Assignment:

Neighborhood of the Kalobeyei settlement

Number of Clusters in Sample:

We plan to do a census of the Village 3 of Kalobeyei settlement.

Number of Individuals in Sample:

There are about 1500 South-Sudanese households, and about 2500 adults in Kalobeyei Village 3.

Size of Treatment, Control, or Comparison Subsamples:

About 450 households in the control group (800 adults), and 900 households in the treatment group (1600 adults).

Supplementary Files

Analysis Plan:

IE unrestricted cash final PAP.pdf

Other Documents:

Data

Outcomes Data

Description:

Our main source of data is the household survey that we will undertake in Kalobeyei Village 3 in November 2019. We aim to interview all South-Sudanese adults living it this site. More details are provided in the pre-analysis plan.

Data Already Collected?

No

Data Previously Used?

Data Access:

Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?

Data Approval Process:

Approval Status:

Treatment Assignment Data

Participation or Assignment Information:

Yes

Description:

Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?

Data Previously Used?

Data Access:

Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?

Data Approval Process:

Approval Status:

Data Analysis

Data Analysis Status:

Study Materials

Upload Study Materials:

Registration Category

Registration Category:

Prospective, Category 1: Data for measuring impacts have not been collected

Completion

Completion Overview

Intervention Completion Date:

Data Collection Completion Date:

12/01/2019

Unit of Analysis:

Refugee households and individuals in the Kalobeyei settlement

Clusters in Final Sample:

Two-stage cluster sampling with 134 clusters selected. Some received the treatment, others not (natural experiment)

Total Observations in Final Sample:

896 households and 1529 individuals

Size of Treatment, Control, or Comparison Subsamples:

Out of these households, 528 households with 920 adults were receiving unrestricted cash transfers, and 368 households with 609 adults were receiving Bamba Chakula transfers.

Findings

Preliminary Report:

Yes

Preliminary Report URL:

https://www.rsc.ox.ac.uk/publications/cash-transfer-models-and-debt-in-the-kalobeyei-settlement

Summary of Findings:

The use of cash transfer programmes in humanitarian contexts is growing. In comparison to in-kind assistance, cash transfers are widely praised for enhancing autonomy, reducing costs, and boosting local markets. There are various modalities of cash transfer, from food vouchers to mobile money, and cash. Yet, evidence on the relative merits of these models is scarce. Using first-hand data from 896 refugee households living in the Kalobeyei settlement in Kenya, we make use of a ‘natural experiment’ to study the relative effects of restricted versus unrestricted cash transfers to refugees. Our research shows that the switch to unrestricted cash transfers has positive impacts on asset holding and subjective well-being. Households receiving unrestricted cash transfers also appear to be less likely to engage in the costly practice of reselling food for non-food items. There is some evidence that unrestricted transfers may lead to higher expenditure on alcohol and tobacco, however this relates to only a limited proportion of households and a small proportion of their budget. Both modalities of cash-based assistance are associated with indebtedness. A staggering 89% of sampled households are indebted towards their retailers, and cash transfers are used as a form of collateral by retailers to guarantee debt repayment. Indebted households have low negotiating power, face high prices, and are prevented from selecting between competing retailers. Facing both the uncertainty of food insecurity and the social pressures exerted by their creditors, many indebted refugees are left with feelings of anxiety, helplessness, and fear. This report discusses the pros and cons of various policy options for addressing the problem of indebtedness, including debt repayment schemes or debt relief, social safety nets, more frequent transfers, training, and monitoring.

Paper:

Yes

Change History for Paper

Changed On	Previous Value
12/07/2021	No

Paper Summary:

Paper Citation:

Siu, J., Sterck, O., & Rodgers, C. (2021). The Freedom to Choose: Theory and Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Cash Transfer Restrictions (No. 2021-14). Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.

Data Availability

Data Availability (Primary Data):

Yes--Available in the future

Date of Data Availability:

Data URL or Contact:

Data will be available upon the publication of the research paper.

Access procedure:

Other Materials

Survey:

No

Survey Instrument Links or Contact:

Program Files:

No

Program Files Links or Contact:

Question not relevant

External Link:

External Link Description:

Description of Changes:

Study Stopped

Date:

Reason: