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General

Study Overview

Title:

Evaluation of AgResults Kenya On-Farm Storage Pilot

Study is 3ie funded:

No

Study ID:

RIDIE-STUDY-ID-5512d5550878c

Initial Registration Date:

03/25/2015

Last Update Date:

03/18/2015

Study Status:

Ongoing

Location(s):

Kenya

Abstract:

This study will assess the impact of the AgResults pilot program to increase small farmer awareness, adoption, and use of on-farm storage solutions (OFS) and subsequent effects on income in Kenya using a quasi-experimental design coupled with qualitative research. Specifically, we employ a short interrupted time series (SITS) approach to estimate the impact of the pilot on smallholder farmers by comparing the pre-pilot time trend on key outcomes to post-pilot levels. The SITS design measures impact as a departure from the expected levels of the outcome measure (in this case smallholders’ uptake of on-farm solutions, and smallholder income) when projected forward in time, as an approximation of what would happen were the treatment not introduced. The SITS approach entails (1) generating a counterfactual for the outcome measure, which represents the expected level of the outcome in the post-intervention period in the absence of the treatment as the projected trend in pre-intervention observations, and (2) modeling the treatment effect as a deviation of actual post-intervention outcomes from this counterfactual.

Registration Citation:

Narayan, T. and Bell, S., 2015. Evaluation of AgResults Kenya On-Farm Storage Pilot. Registry for International Development for Impact Evaluations (RIDIE). Available at: 10.23846/ridie045

Categories:

Agriculture and Rural Development
Economic Policy
Health, Nutrition, and Population
Private Sector Development

Additional Keywords:

on-farm storage, post-harvest loss, maize, Kenya, pull mechanism

Secondary ID Number(s):

Principal Investigator(s)

Name of First PI:

Tulika Narayan

Affiliation:

Abt Associates

Name of Second PI:

Stephen Bell

Affiliation:

Abt Associates

Study Sponsor

Name:

DFID

Study Sponsor Location:

United Kingdom

Research Partner

Name of Partner Institution:

Denise Mainville Consulting

Type of Organization:

Private firm

Location:

United States

Intervention

Intervention Overview

Intervention:

The AgResults on-farm storage pilot employs a "pull" mechanism, offering incentives for private sector investment in the market to provide on-farm storage solutions for maize and other grain and pulse crops in Kenya. The objective is to improve smallholder farmers’ access to and utilization of economically and technologically appropriate on-farm storage solutions, allowing them to realize the economic benefits of storing maize after harvest rather than losing crops to pests, mold, and other causes of post-harvest loss or selling it and buying more maize for consumption later (at higher prices). By motivating the supply of high-quality on-farm storage, the pilot seeks to mitigate this sell-low, buy-high reality and the high rate of post-harvest loss in storage that is currently endemic to Kenya and sub-Saharan Africa. The pilot is intended to motivate private sector investment in the market for on-farm storage solutions by offering performance-based grant money to firms in proportion to the amount of technically appropriate storage which they sell in fourteen counties in the Eastern and Rift Valley regions of Kenya.

Theory of Change:

Multiple Treatment Arms Evaluated?

No

Implementing Agency

Name of Organization:

AgResults

Type of Organization:

Other

Program Funder

Name of Organization:

DFID

Type of Organization:

Foreign or Multilateral Aid Agency

Intervention Timing

Intervention or Program Started at time of Registration?

No

Start Date:

05/01/2015

End Date:

05/01/2018

Evaluation Method

Evaluation Method Overview

Primary (or First) Evaluation Method:

Other (specify)

Other (not Listed) Method:

Short interrupted time series

Additional Evaluation Method (If Any):

Other (not Listed) Method:

Method Details

Details of Evaluation Approach:

Our quasi-experimental design uses four pre-intervention data points to form the counterfactual to be compared with three post-intervention data points in this short (or abbreviated) interrupted time-series (SITS) design. The SITS design measures the intervention impact as a departure from the expected levels of the outcome measure (in this case smallholders’ uptake of on-farm solutions, smallholder income or food security) were the treatment not introduced. Specifically, this design entails (1) generating a counterfactual for the outcome measure, which represents the expected level of the outcome in the post-intervention period in the absence of the treatment and is constructed by projecting the trend in pre-intervention observations of the outcome measure, and (2) modelling the treatment effect as a deviation from this counterfactual.

Outcomes (Endpoints):

The primary farmer-level outcomes in this study are uptake of improved on-farm storage technologies and household income, proxied by maize revenue. Additional outcomes of interest include awareness of and access to technologies, length of grain/pulse storage, timing of grain/pulse sales, price received for grains/pulses, post-harvest loss amounts, post-harvest handling knowledge, and amount spent on grains/pulses for consumption. Maize is the primary crop of interest, though some data on other grains and pulses will be collected as well.

Unit of Analysis:

Household

Hypotheses:

The null hypothesis is that the impact of the pilot on small farmer adoption and income will be zero.

Unit of Intervention or Assignment:

Households

Number of Clusters in Sample:

780 villages

Number of Individuals in Sample:

4680 households

Size of Treatment, Control, or Comparison Subsamples:

n/a

Supplementary Files

Analysis Plan:

AgResults Kenya analysis plan for upload to RIDIE.docx

Other Documents:

Data

Outcomes Data

Description:

Household survey of a panel of 4680 households in the 14 Kenyan counties where the pilot intervention will take place.

Data Already Collected?

No

Data Previously Used?

Data Access:

Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?

Data Approval Process:

Approval Status:

Treatment Assignment Data

Participation or Assignment Information:

Yes

Description:

Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?

Data Previously Used?

Data Access:

Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?

Data Approval Process:

Approval Status:

Data Analysis

Data Analysis Status:

Study Materials

Upload Study Materials:

Registration Category

Registration Category:

Prospective, Category 1: Data for measuring impacts have not been collected

Completion

Completion Overview

Intervention Completion Date:

Data Collection Completion Date:

Unit of Analysis:

Clusters in Final Sample:

Total Observations in Final Sample:

Size of Treatment, Control, or Comparison Subsamples:

Findings

Preliminary Report:

Preliminary Report URL:

Summary of Findings:

Paper:

Paper Summary:

Paper Citation:

Data Availability

Data Availability (Primary Data):

Date of Data Availability:

Data URL or Contact:

Access procedure:

Other Materials

Survey:

Survey Instrument Links or Contact:

Program Files:

Program Files Links or Contact:

External Link:

External Link Description:

Description of Changes:

Study Stopped

Date:

Reason: