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General

Study Overview

Title:

A Randomized Experiment of Cash Transfers and Financial Education on Vulnerable Iraqi’s Resilience to the Economic Effects of COVID-19

Change History for Title

Changed On	Previous Value
06/11/2020	A Randomized Controlled Study of Cash Transfer Modalities on Livelihoods and Economic Behavior in Iraq

Study is 3ie funded:

No

Study ID:

RIDIE-STUDY-ID-5de0a4cf67c56

Initial Registration Date:

11/28/2019

Last Update Date:

06/11/2020

Study Status:

Ongoing

Abstract:

A significant body of research shows that the provision of cash transfers can promote a range of social outcomes, including food security and livelihood development alongside improvements to health and education. There is limited evidence, however, on the impact of cash transfers in a protracted conflict environment and almost non-existent evidence on the role that cash transfers play in promoting household resilience in the face of a global health and economic crisis such as that posed by COVID-19. Prior to the arrival of COVID-19, the Cash Consortium for Iraq (CCI) began implementing a randomized control trial designed to identify the impact of various cash distribution schedules, combined with financial education training, on the ability of vulnerable Iraqi households to both meet their basic consumption needs and invest in productive livelihood opportunities. With the arrival of COVID, the endline survey instrument has been amended to include questions to assess the impact of the cash transfers on household’s economic decisions, ability to meet basic needs, and psychosocial wellbeing. This data will be also compared to baseline and midline data collected just prior to the pandemic to isolate the economic impacts of COVID amongst vulnerable populations in Iraq.

Change History for Abstract

Changed On	Previous Value
06/11/2020	The primary goal of this research is to provide a means for understanding the range of well-being outcomes for beneficiaries across different cash transfer schedules and supplementary programming while minimizing the overall disruption to ongoing humanitarian and development objectives.

Registration Citation:

Categories:

Economic Policy
Social Protection

Additional Keywords:

Secondary ID Number(s):

Principal Investigator(s)

Name of First PI:

Reimar Maracanas

Affiliation:

Causal Design

Name of Second PI:

Marlaina Ross

Change History for Name of Second PI

Changed On	Previous Value
06/11/2020	Alex Porter

Affiliation:

Causal Design

Intervention

Intervention Overview

Intervention:

The objective of this intervention is to identify the impacts of receiving cash on Iraqi household’s ability to meet basic needs and invest in productive assets. Additionally, the research also aims to isolate the impact of cash transfers on the psychosocial wellbeing of beneficiary households. The beneficiaries of the intervention are households residing in communities in Iraq which have been affected by protracted conflict and political instability.

Change History for Intervention

Changed On	Previous Value
06/11/2020	Cash transfer program in Iraq targetting communities affected by conflict. The objective is to understand the impact of cash tranfers on well-being in conflict affected areas.

Theory of Change:

The theory of change underlying this research is the idea that cash transfers, particularly those delivered in conflict affected areas, will improve household’s ability to both better meet basic needs in the short term as well as invest in productive assets that improve their resilience to economic shocks in the long run. For this reason, all beneficiary groups should demonstrate improved outcomes over their control group counterparts who do not immediately receive a cash transfer. Modality is hypothesized to play a role in how households allocate resources, however. Those households receiving the lump sum payments are expected to prioritize economic investments, particularly those which require larger cash investments, over daily needs and consumption. This is in contrast to those households assigned to either of the two interventions involving three smaller transfers, which are expected to prioritize meeting daily consumption needs.

Change History for Theory of Change

Changed On

Previous Value

06/11/2020

Cash transfers delivered in conflict-affected areas will affect economic recovery of beneficiary households and specific cash transfer schedules will affect household recovery strategies. All beneficiary groups should demonstrate improved outcomes over control group counterparts that do not immediately receive a transfer. Households receiving lump sum payments will be more likely to prioritize economic investments, particularly those that require larger cash investments, over daily needs and consumption due to the size of the payment.

Multiple Treatment Arms Evaluated?

Yes

Implementing Agency

Name of Organization:

Cash Consortium of Iraq (consisting of MercyCorps, the International Rescue Committee, the Danish Refugee Council, Oxfam, and the Norwegian Refugee Council)

Change History for Name of Organization

Changed On	Previous Value
06/11/2020	MercyCorps

Type of Organization:

NGO (International)

Program Funder

Name of Organization:

United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

Type of Organization:

Public Sector, e.g. Government Agency or Ministry

Intervention Timing

Intervention or Program Started at time of Registration?

Yes

Start Date:

06/01/2019

End Date:

06/05/2020

Evaluation Method

Evaluation Method Overview

Primary (or First) Evaluation Method:

Randomized control trial

Other (not Listed) Method:

Additional Evaluation Method (If Any):

Other (not Listed) Method:

Method Details

Details of Evaluation Approach:

This evaluation relied on a phased randomized control trial methodology. Existing vulnerability assessment tools (namely a proxy means test) were utilized to define the sampling frame. The selection of households for each treatment arm was achieved through a stratified randomization technique to ensure balance across key indicators (including geography, household characteristics, and sources of income). Analysis and presentation of the final results will include summary statistics, OLS regression analysis (for continuous variables) and ordered logistic regression (for categorical and binary variables).

Change History for Details of Evaluation Approach

Changed On

Previous Value

06/11/2020

The evaluation will conduct a phased ranodmized control trial. The evaulation will use existing vulnerability assessment tools (namely a proxy means test) to define the sampling frame. The research team will then use stratified randomization select treament arms and ensure that they are balanced across indicators (namely geography, household characteristics, sources of income). Analysis of the results will include summary statistics and OLS regression analysis (for continuous variables) and logistical regression (for binary variables)

Outcomes (Endpoints):

The outcomes this project aims to focus on are two-fold. First, the research will identify the impacts of receiving cash on Iraqi household’s abilities to meet basic needs, including food and shelter, invest in productive assets, and their psychosocial wellbeing. This analysis will isolate the impact of three separate cash transfer schedules as well as that of an accompanying financial health training. Second, the team plans to use COVID specific data from the final endline survey to identify both the economic effects of COVID-19 in Iraq as well as the impact of cash transfers on household resilience in the face of an unprecedented crisis.

Change History for Outcomes (Endpoints)

Changed On	Previous Value
06/11/2020	The primary outcome is economic recovery as measure by an aggregate wellbeing indicator. This measure will rely on two primary survey level tools.

Unit of Analysis:

Individuals

Hypotheses:

Primary hypothesis: 

Households receiving lump sum payments will be more likely to prioritize economic investments, particularly those that require larger cash investments, over daily needs and consumption. Despite receiving the same amount of cash by the final transfer, it is expected that our tranche payment groups will be more likely to prioritize smaller consumption purchases and meeting immediate needs as a means of promoting economic recovery. It is expected that all treatment groups should demonstrate improved outcomes over control group counterparts that do not immediately receive a transfer. 

Secondary hypothesis:  

Households receiving even distributions should mirror basic needs outcomes for households receiving smaller initial disbursements of 200 USD at early stages of the cash transfer. However, it is expected that the difference in size of the final transfer should result in engagement in different economic recovery activities at the endline. Households receiving the larger 800 USD transfer  are predicted to demonstrate higher levels of economic investment when compared those households receiving consistent transfers of 400 USD. The research team hypothesizes that since all beneficiary households are identified as vulnerable, it is unlikely that large reductions in labor force participation will be observed. However, it is possible that temporary shifts in labor allocation may be observed as a result of changing income dynamics within the households due to the receipt of cash. Receiving financial health encouragement training in conjunction with the cash transfer(s) is hypothesized to result in the prioritization of economic investment or stabilization activities that are more likely to provide long term benefit to the beneficiary household.

Change History for Hypotheses

Changed On

Previous Value

06/11/2020

Primary hypothesis: Households receiving lump sum payments will be more likely to prioritize economic investments, particularly those that require larger cash investments, over daily needs and consumption due to the size of the payment. Despite, receiving the same amount of cash by the final transfer, it is expected that our tranche payment groups will more likely prioritize smaller consumption purposes and meeting immediate needs as a means of promoting economic recovery. It is expected that all treatment groups should demonstrate improved outcomes over control group counterparts that do not immediately receive a transfer. Secondary hyptheses:  Households receiving even distributions should mirror basic needs outcomes for households receiving smaller initial disbursements of 200 USD at early stages of the cash transfer. However, it is expected that the difference in size of the final transfer should result in different economic recovery activities. Households receiving the larger 800 dollar transfer later in the schedule should demonstrate higher levels of economic investment in comparison to the group receiving 400 dollars consistently throughout the cash transfer process.  The research team hypothesizes that since all beneficiary households are identified as vulnerable, it is unlikely that we should overall large reductions in labor income as households would still be focused on some form of economic recovery. However, we may see temporary shifts in labor allocation as the cash transfers have the potential for changing income dynamics in the home.  The research team hypothesizes that financial services will result in a prioritization of economic investment or stabilization activities that are more geared towards long term benefits when paired with cash transfer(s) in Iraq.

Unit of Intervention or Assignment:

Individuals

Number of Clusters in Sample:

Individuals will be randomly selected from 20 different administrative locations across three governorates

Number of Individuals in Sample:

827 households

Change History for Number of Individuals in Sample

Changed On	Previous Value
06/11/2020	At least 805 individuals

Size of Treatment, Control, or Comparison Subsamples:

Treatment group size varied from 117 to 123 households

Change History for Size of Treatment, Control, or Comparison Subsamples

Changed On	Previous Value
06/11/2020	At least 115 per subsample

Data

Outcomes Data

Description:

Two survey tools were used to collect data:: A vulnerability assessment that captureswhich captured a wide range of economic and emergency coping strategies and an economic, social capital, and psychosocialpsycological well- being survey. Additionally, a module designed to specifically assess the health and economic implications of the protracted COVID-19 crisis was added to the final Endline B module.

Change History for Description

Changed On	Previous Value
06/11/2020	Two survey tools: A vulnerability assessment that captures a wide range of economic and emergency coping strategies and an economic, social capital, and psycological well being survey.

Data Already Collected?

Yes

Change History for Data Collection Status

Changed On	Previous Value
06/11/2020	No

Data Previously Used?

No

Data Access:

Not restricted - access with no requirements or minimal requirements (e.g. web registration)

Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?

Yes

Data Approval Process:

Approval Status:

Treatment Assignment Data

Participation or Assignment Information:

Yes

Description:

Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?

Data Previously Used?

Data Access:

Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?

Data Approval Process:

Approval Status:

Data Analysis

Data Analysis Status:

Yes

Study Materials

Upload Study Materials:

Registration Category

Registration Category:

Non-Prospective, Category 4: Data for measuring impacts have been obtained/collected by the research team and analysis for this evaluation has started

Change History for Registration Category

Changed On	Previous Value
06/11/2020	Prospective, Category 1: Data for measuring impacts have not been collected

Completion

Completion Overview

Intervention Completion Date:

Data Collection Completion Date:

Unit of Analysis:

Clusters in Final Sample:

Total Observations in Final Sample:

Size of Treatment, Control, or Comparison Subsamples:

Findings

Preliminary Report:

Preliminary Report URL:

Summary of Findings:

Paper:

Paper Summary:

Paper Citation:

Data Availability

Data Availability (Primary Data):

Date of Data Availability:

Data URL or Contact:

Access procedure:

Other Materials

Survey:

Survey Instrument Links or Contact:

Program Files:

Program Files Links or Contact:

External Link:

External Link Description:

Description of Changes:

Study Stopped

Date:

Reason: