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General

Study Overview

Title:

Radio broadcasting for community-based conflict management. The case of Niger

Study is 3ie funded:

No

Study ID:

RIDIE-STUDY-ID-674806c46c68a

Initial Registration Date:

11/27/2024

Last Update Date:

05/06/2024

Study Status:

In Development

Location(s):

Niger

Abstract:

Mass media interventions, such as radio broadcasts, have been used to mobilize political support, promote ethnic hatred, and incite violence, but have also been used to build post-conflict cohesion and to address formal combatants. If radio interventions are able to change social norms, they could be used as a conflict transformation tool to build and promote peace. Despite its great potential, there is little evidence to support its effectiveness, and little is known about how it might accomplish this, especially in settings of active conflict. Our study aims to fill this gap by evaluating the effectiveness of an initiative sponsored by the UN PBSO that broadcasts pro-peace messages via Niger's community radio stations. We will use a geographic discontinuity approach, collecting behavioral data from individuals inside and just outside of the broadcasting range of four radio stations. Furthermore, each individual will be randomly assigned to listen to either a portion of the original radio program or a placebo recording. We will test whether exposure to pro-peace radio messages influences trust and attitudes toward the use of violence both in the context of the experiment and the regression discontinuity design.

Registration Citation:

Ferguson, N.T.N., Orozco-Garcia, T., Rebolledo, P., Schöder, P., Ungwang, L. (2024). "Radio Broadcasting for Community-Based Conflict Management. The Case of Mali." 

Categories:

Other

Additional Keywords:

Peacebuilding, Niger, peace radio

Secondary ID Number(s):

Principal Investigator(s)

Name of First PI:

Neil T.N. Ferguson

Affiliation:

International Security and Development Center - ISDC Berlin

Name of Second PI:

Tatiana Orozco Garcia, Paulina Rebolledo, Philipp Schöder, Lame Ungwang,

Affiliation:

International Security and Development Center - ISDC Berlin

Study Sponsor

Name:

German Federal Foreign Office (GFFO)

Study Sponsor Location:

Germany

Research Partner

Name of Partner Institution:

International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie)

Type of Organization:

NGO-international

Location:

United States

Intervention

Intervention Overview

Intervention:

The “Support for cross-border dialogue and security sector reform initiatives for peacebuilding in Mali and Niger” project has taken a multipronged approach to building trust and promoting peace and stabilization at the Mali / Niger border. In this work, we are interested in a major component of this strategy, implemented throughout 2020 and completed by Q1 2021 – the broadcast of a peace messaging programs through community radio stations in the Tilaberi region of Niger. This radio programming has sought to deliver information on conflict prevention and social cohesion, including the promotion of non-violent forms of conflict resolution, as well as trust in state institutions through an existing network of private community radio stations in Niger. The programs were broadcast by 4 radio stations in these regions throughout 2020, with the information and training associated with the programming supported by UNODC and UN Women

Theory of Change:

Radio has been used to incite violence (Yanagizawa-Drott 2014), mobilize political support (Adena et al. 2015), and promote ethnic hatred (DellaVigna et al. 2014). However, literature has also demonstrated the media's capability to facilitate conflict transformation (Armand et al., 2020). In particular, radio interventions could positively affect intergroup behaviors by altering social norms (Paluck 2009) and increasing trust and reconciliation, e.g., by reducing competitive victimhood (Bilali and Vollhardt, 2013; Bilali et al. 2015). This builds on broader literature that shows mass media interventions have effectively influenced behaviors and attitudes more broadly – including in medical and social fields. Therefore, pro-peace radio programs can facilitate community dialogue and deliver key messages influencing people's views and beliefs. The interventions aimed to facilitate the sharing of experiences and best practices among local communities to enhance peace perceptions and actions. As a result, trust can be built between communities and institutional actors, and individual attitudes toward violence can be transformed. However, conducting the work in active conflict scenarios poses unique challenges that could underpin this theory of change. The broadcasts could draw violence from outside the broadcast areas or could result in so-called “backlash” (e.g., Guess and Coppock, 2020) if they challenge listeners’ pre-standing beliefs.

Multiple Treatment Arms Evaluated?

Yes

Implementing Agency

Name of Organization:

UNODC and UN Women

Type of Organization:

Foreign or Multilateral Aid Agency

Program Funder

Name of Organization:

United Nations Peacebuilding Fund

Type of Organization:

Foreign or Multilateral Aid Agency

Intervention Timing

Intervention or Program Started at time of Registration?

Yes

Start Date:

10/01/2019

End Date:

04/01/2021

Evaluation Method

Evaluation Method Overview

Primary (or First) Evaluation Method:

Regression discontinuity

Other (not Listed) Method:

Additional Evaluation Method (If Any):

Other (specify)

Other (not Listed) Method:

radomized "priming"

Method Details

Details of Evaluation Approach:

The study will collect quantitative data from 800 individuals living in communities that were either just inside or just outside the broadcasting range of a supported radio station. Since these communities are geographically close to one another, they should be similar in terms of socio-economic and demographic indicators, but the extent to which they are exposed to radio broadcasts differs. By comparing behaviors and attitudes across this discontinuity, we can provide a causal understanding of the broadcast effects. We plan to overlay an additional treatment component in the study. Participants will be randomly assigned to listen to a segment of a radio pro-peace recording or to a placebo recording. This allows us to test how individuals respond to the content of the broadcast and to test whether or not there are variations in responses over the geographic discontinuity. Individuals will be asked for their trust and attitudes towards the use of violence. An integrated qualitative study will ask a series of semistructured questions to 40 respondents selected at random to collect deeper information about key themes. In combination, this data will afford a unique opportunity to causally understand the attitudinal and behavioral outcomes that underpin the impacts of pro-peace radio programs, both by focusing on the messaging itself (through the prime) and by assessing the impact of past exposure to such programming (through the discontinuity).

We will conduct multivariate statistical analyses across both the treatment assignment (via the RDD) and prime assignment (via randomization) in order to test the outcome of the intervention and the primes. The RDD will defined by individuals having lived in villages just inside/outside the broadcasting range (which we have sourced from the Radio Data Centre, and on-line took frequently used in academic research) at the time of the broadcasts. The randomization into the prime will be stratified across the RDD.

Outcomes (Endpoints):

The primary outcome variables are: 

- Justification of the use of violence at the individual and the community level: A categorical variable (1 to 4). We will present two vignettes: one in which violence is used ostensibly for personal gain and one in which violence is used as self-defense in a potentially threatening situation. Vignettes will be presented in a random. Additionally, respondents are asked about their beliefs regarding what others in their communities think about the same situations.

- Index of violence justifications: A categorical variable from 1 to 4. The average score of individuals between Justification of violence for personal gain and no clear motive. 

- Index of Community Violence: A categorical variable from 1 to 4. The average score of beliefs about community justification of violence for personal gain and without a clear motive

- Indicators of trust in the community and institutions: Likert-scale (1-4) of individuals' trust in other people, institutions, and organizations. 

The secondary outcome variables of interest are:

Support to Violence groups: We will use an endorsement experiment, asking individuals how much they agree, on a scale from 1 to 4, with the proposal of a new reform to the Nigerian school system. We will randomly assign individuals to give their opinion on their support for this reform when varying the authority: the current government, an Islamic organization, and the current military leaders.

- Experience with conflict: We ask individuals whether they, some family member, or someone in their community have been victims of an attack or assault in the last six months and who has been the perpetrator. 

Unit of Analysis:

The unit of analysis is the 800 individuals who will be surveyed in 4 areas in Niger

Hypotheses:

We hypothesize: 

1. Randomized exposure to the peace radio prime, in the experimental setting, will result in positive changes in the key variables listed above. In particular, we expect to observe increased trust and increased aversion to violent forms of conflict resolution.
2. We anticipate that prior exposure to similar broadcasts – captured by individuals living within the geographic discontinuity defined by the end of the broadcasting range – will result in heterogeneities in outcomes, both directly and across the primes:

• a. Those within the RDD not exposed to the prime will have different outcomes in key indicators than those outside of the RDD not exposed to the prime
• b. Those within the RDD will exhibit a different response to the prime than those outside the RDD exposed to it. We are agnostic on the direction of the net effect, given hypothesis 2a.
• c. Those within the RDD exposed to the prime will show different outcomes across the key outcomes than those within the RDD and not exposed to the prime.
• d. Those outside the RDD exposed to the prime will show different outcomes across the key outcomes than those outside the RDD and not exposed to the prime.
• e. Those within the RDD exposed to the prime will show different outcomes across the key outcomes than those outside the RDD and not exposed to the prime.

  

Unit of Intervention or Assignment:

Individuals within the treatment regions

Number of Clusters in Sample:

We will work with four clusters defined by the four radio stations but the unit of randomization is the individual

Number of Individuals in Sample:

We plan to collect data from 800 individuals

Size of Treatment, Control, or Comparison Subsamples:

400 individuals in treatment and 400 individuals in control villages. Individuals will be randomized to listen to the pro-peace or a placebo recording. The analysis considers four cells of 200 each

Supplementary Files

Other Documents:

Data

Outcomes Data

Description:

We will collect primary data from approximately 800 individuals as described above. This data will comprise a series of experimental and observational data collected from participants. Additionally, we will interview 40 individuals to expand on the importance of trust, experience, and attitudes about violence, political attitudes, and social engagement.

Data Already Collected?

No

Data Previously Used?

Data Access:

Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?

Data Approval Process:

Approval Status:

Treatment Assignment Data

Participation or Assignment Information:

Yes

Description:

Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?

Data Previously Used?

Data Access:

Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?

Data Approval Process:

Approval Status:

Data Analysis

Data Analysis Status:

Study Materials

Upload Study Materials:

: 03-Questionnaires_English.docx

Registration Category

Registration Category:

Prospective, Category 1: Data for measuring impacts have not been collected

Completion

Completion Overview

Intervention Completion Date:

Data Collection Completion Date:

Unit of Analysis:

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Total Observations in Final Sample:

Size of Treatment, Control, or Comparison Subsamples:

Findings

Preliminary Report:

Preliminary Report URL:

Summary of Findings:

Paper:

Paper Summary:

Paper Citation:

Data Availability

Data Availability (Primary Data):

Date of Data Availability:

Data URL or Contact:

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Other Materials

Survey:

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Program Files:

Program Files Links or Contact:

External Link:

External Link Description:

Description of Changes:

Study Stopped

Date:

Reason: