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Study Overview

Takaful and Karama Impact Evaluation
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The Takaful & Karama Impact Evaluation is a targeting and impact evaluation of Egypt’s targeted cash transfer programs. This program seek to protect the poor and most vulnerable; namely poor families with children (under 18 years of age), poor elderly (aged 65 years and above) and persons with a severe disability. The program is being implemented by the Ministry of Social Solidarity (MoSS), and co-financed by the Government of Egypt and the World Bank. As part of the impact evaluation, IFPRI will be collecting data through a baseline questionnaire administered to approximately 8,000 households across the 17 governorates (81 districts) involved in the program. The purpose of this survey is to collect detailed information on household expenditure and poverty (primary outcome) as well as a range of secondary outcomes including child schooling attainment, child nutritional status and immunization, household dietary diversity, and health care utilization. The ultimate objective is to assess the impact of the conditional cash transfers on these outcomes and provide recommendations moving forward for the impact evaluation and the program as a whole.

Registration Citation:

Breisinger, C. and Gilligan, D., 2017. Takaful and Karama Impact Evaluation. Registry for International Development for Impact Evaluations (RIDIE). Available at: 10.23846/ridie127

Health, Nutrition, and Population
Social Protection
Additional Keywords:
CCT, Safety Net, Poverty, Egypt, Cash transfers
Secondary ID Number(s):
7182446 (World Bank)

Principal Investigator(s)

Name of First PI:
Clemens Breisinger
Name of Second PI:
Dan Gilligan

Study Sponsor

World Bank
Study Sponsor Location:
United States

Research Partner

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Intervention Overview


The Takaful and Karama Program (TKP) was established by the Government of Egypt in late 2014 to be implemented by the Ministry of Social Solidarity (MoSS). TKP is a targeted safety net program aimed at protecting the poor through income support. The intended beneficiaries are poor households with children under 18 years (Takaful); and the poor elderly (65 and older) or disabled persons (with severe and permanent disabilities) (Karama). Takaful is a conditional cash transfer aiming to reduce poverty while enhancing human development outcomes (in health and education). In contrast, Karama is unconditional and aims instead to protect the poor elderly (above age 65) and poor persons with severe disabilities. In Takaful, the conditionalities are (a) school attendance of at least 80 percent of school days by children aged 6–18 years and (b) two visits a year to health clinics by mothers and their children under 6 years of age, maintaining child growth monitoring records, and attending nutrition awareness sessions which will focus on promoting better child feeding practices, regular immunization, and antenatal and postnatal care of women.

Theory of Change:
Multiple Treatment Arms Evaluated?

Implementing Agency

Name of Organization:
Ministry of Social Solidarity (MoSS)
Type of Organization:
Public Sector, e.g. Government Agency or Ministry

Program Funder

Name of Organization:
Government of Egypt
Type of Organization:
Public Sector, e.g. Government Agency or Ministry

Intervention Timing

Intervention or Program Started at time of Registration?
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Evaluation Method

Evaluation Method Overview

Primary (or First) Evaluation Method:
Regression discontinuity
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Method Details

Details of Evaluation Approach:

We will be conducting the impact evaluation using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) as the primary evaluation methodology. Targeting for the Takaful and Karama Intervention is based on a Proxy Means Test (PMT) to identify poor households. The application of threshold PMT scores to determine eligibility for the program provides the conditions needed to measure impact of TKP by RDD. In some cases, the PMT eligibility criterion are not strictly applied, so we are likely to use ‘fuzzy RDD’ methods

Outcomes (Endpoints):

Primary Outcome: Household poverty (total household expenditure used as a proxy for household income and poverty measurement) Secondary Outcomes: • Household dietary diversity • Nutrition and health knowledge and practices • Health care utilization • School enrollment • Mother and child obesity and overweight • Child cognitive skills • Aspirations and subjective perception of well-being

Unit of Analysis:

Primary hypothesis: TKP eligibility increases household welfare on the primary and secondary outcomes specified above. Secondary hypothesis: TKP impacts on child nutrition and education are higher in households where the primary caregiver has greater decision-making role, her own education level is higher, and her awareness of program conditionality is higher.

Unit of Intervention or Assignment:
Number of Clusters in Sample:
501 clusters in the sampling procedure, but program itself is centrally administered
Number of Individuals in Sample:
8016 households
Size of Treatment, Control, or Comparison Subsamples:
Treatment: 3524; Control: 2875; Random selection for targetting analysis: 1616

Supplementary Files

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Outcomes Data

The most important data source is an 82 page household survey instrument covering a range of topics including household demographics, assets, expenditures, consumption (food and non-food), employment, agriculture, program participation, education attainment and health status, and subjective well-being. The survey also includes collection of anthropometric data on two randomly selected children and the mother, and a Raven’s test for one randomly selected child per household.
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Treatment Assignment Data

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Data Analysis

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Study Materials

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Registration Category

Registration Category:
Prospective, Category 1: Data for measuring impacts have not been collected

Completion Overview

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Preliminary Report:
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Data Availability

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Other Materials

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Description of Changes:

Study Stopped