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Study Overview

Title:
Does deforestation increase malaria prevalence? Evidence from satellite data and health surveys (pre-analysis plan 1 of 2: Liberia only)
Study is 3ie funded:
No
Study ID:
RIDIE-STUDY-ID-5b7a6687cb876
Initial Registration Date:
09/22/2017
Last Update Date:
08/20/2018
Study Status:
Completed
Location(s):
Liberia
Abstract:

Malaria remains a substantial health burden in many countries. Pathways through which deforestation has been found to increase malaria risk include forest-cover effects, forest-cover-loss effects, and socio-economic associations. A growing number of studies have examined whether deforestation increases malaria prevalence in humans, with the majority of these analyses concluding that it does. But these studies have been based on a small number of countries using less-than-ideal forest data at the aggregate jurisdictional level. In this paper we combine fourteen years of 30-meter resolution satellite data on forest loss with tens of thousands of surveys of malaria and fever in children in more than 30 countries. Based on methods pre-specified in a pre-analysis plan, we test the ex-ante hypotheses that forest-cover loss increases malaria prevalence and that intermediate levels of forest cover have highest malaria prevalence. We further test ex ante hypotheses related to disaggregations; i.e., that the forest-cover-loss effect is greater in Latin America and Africa than Asia, greater at earlier stages of a forest transition, and greater for smaller cuts.

Registration Citation:

Busch, J. and Bauhoff, S., 2017. Does deforestation increase malaria prevalence? Evidence from satellite data and health surveys (pre-analysis plan 1 of 2: Liberia only). Registry for International Development for Impact Evaluations (RIDIE). Available at: 10.23846/ridie119

Categories:
Agriculture and Rural Development
Environment and Disaster Management
Health, Nutrition, and Population
Multisector
Additional Keywords:
Cost-effectiveness analysis; Demographic and Health Surveys; Mediation Analysis
Secondary ID Number(s):

Principal Investigator(s)

Name of First PI:
Jonah Busch
Affiliation:
Center for Global Development
Name of Second PI:
Sebastian Bauhoff
Affiliation:
Center for Global Development

Study Sponsor

Name:
Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation
Study Sponsor Location:
Norway

Research Partner

Name of Partner Institution:
Type of Organization:
Location:
Intervention

Intervention Overview

Intervention:

Deforestation. i.e., forest-cover loss as identified in Hansen et al 2013 at a forest cover threshold of 25% canopy cover.

Private Intervention Details:
Theory of Change:
Multiple Treatment Arms Evaluated?
Yes

Implementing Agency

Name of Organization:
n/a
Type of Organization:
Other

Program Funder

Name of Organization:
n/a
Type of Organization:
Other

Intervention Timing

Intervention or Program Started at time of Registration?
Yes
Start Date:
01/01/2000
End Date:
Evaluation Method

Evaluation Method Overview

Primary (or First) Evaluation Method:
Regression with controls
Other (not Listed) Method:
Additional Evaluation Method (If Any):
Difference in difference/fixed effects
Other (not Listed) Method:

Method Details

Details of Evaluation Approach:

Full outline of methods appended.

Private Details of Evaluation Approach:
Outcomes (Endpoints):

Outcome variable (1): malaria in children under 5 (rapid test) Outcome variable (2): malaria in children under 5 (microscopy) Outcome variable (3): fever in children under 5

Unit of Analysis:
Child under the age of 5
Hypotheses:

Primary hypotheses: • Deforestation increases malaria prevalence, ceteris paribus • Deforestation increases fever prevalence, ceteris paribus We examine three pre-specified disaggregations, with ex ante hypotheses derived from published literature: • Continent – Deforestation hypothesized to increase malaria and fever prevalence more in Africa and Latin America than Asia, ceteris paribus • Forest transition - Deforestation hypothesized to increase malaria and fever prevalence more at higher levels of forest cover, ceteris paribus • Clearing size - Deforestation hypothesized to increase malaria and fever prevalence more for smaller clearings, ceteris paribus

Unit of Intervention or Assignment:
~5.5x5.5 km cell
Number of Clusters in Sample:
In the Liberia analysis, thousands of cells. In the full study, hundreds of thousands of cells.
Number of Individuals in Sample:
Thousands.
Size of Treatment, Control, or Comparison Subsamples:
Of the thousands of surveyed children, some fraction will be in cell-years with non-zero (positive) deforestation. We do not know in advance what this fraction is.

Supplementary Files

Analysis Plan:
Outline for pre-analysis plan_LIBERIA FINAL_29 Aug 2017.docx
Other Documents:
Data

Outcomes Data

Description:
Demographic and Health Survey results of malaria and fever in children under 5.
Data Already Collected?
Yes
Data Previously Used?
Yes
Data Access:
Not restricted - access with no requirements or minimal requirements (e.g. web registration)
Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?
Yes
Data Approval Process:
Approval Status:

Treatment Assignment Data

Participation or Assignment Information:
No
Description:
Tree cover and tree cover loss. Hansen et al, Science, 2013. Forest threshold=25%. Gridded to ~5.5 km x 5.5 km cells by Jens Engelmann as described in Busch and Engelmann 2014.
Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?
Yes
Data Previously Used?
Yes
Data Access:
Not restricted - access with no requirements or minimal requirements (e.g. web registration)
Data Obtained by the Study Researchers?
Yes
Data Approval Process:
Approval Status:

Data Analysis

Data Analysis Status:
No

Study Materials

Upload Study Materials:

Registration Category

Registration Category:
Prospective, Category 3: Data for measuring impacts have been obtained/collected by the research team but analysis for this evaluation has not started
Completion

Completion Overview

Intervention Completion Date:
Data Collection Completion Date:
Unit of Analysis:
Clusters in Final Sample:
Total Observations in Final Sample:
Size of Treatment, Control, or Comparison Subsamples:

Findings

Preliminary Report:
Preliminary Report URL:
Summary of Findings:
Paper:
Paper Summary:
Paper Citation:

Data Availability

Data Availability (Primary Data):
Date of Data Availability:
Data URL or Contact:
Access procedure:

Other Materials

Survey:
Survey Instrument Links or Contact:
Program Files:
Program Files Links or Contact:
External Link:
External Link Description:
Description of Changes:

Study Stopped

Date:
Reason: