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Study Overview

Evaluating the African Poultry Multiplication Initiative
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In most countries of the global south, poultry farming plays a role in rural households’ livelihoods. The Africa Poultry Multiplication Initiative (APMI) is designed to distribute low-input, dual-purpose chickens, to smallholder farmers (SHFs) in rural Tanzania and Nigeria. IDinsight is conducting an impact evaluation of the APMI in each country to measure the effects of owning dual-purpose chickens on SHFs’ livelihoods, with particular focus on flock performance, income, nutrition, and women’s empowerment.

Registration Citation:


Agriculture and Rural Development
Additional Keywords:
Agriculture (O13), Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households and Farm Input markets (Q12), Small Scale Poultry Farming, Nigeria, Tanzania
Secondary ID Number(s):

Principal Investigator(s)

Name of First PI:
Torben Fischer
Name of Second PI:

Study Sponsor

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
Study Sponsor Location:
United States

Research Partner

Name of Partner Institution:
Type of Organization:
United States

Intervention Overview


The APMI aims to support smallholder farmer (SHF) livelihoods through facilitated access to dual-purpose chickens. These dual-purpose chickens are expected to exhibit a higher productivity (i.e. to grow faster and to lay more eggs) and lower mortality compared to local chickens. The APMI establishes access to these birds through collaborating with local agri-businesses. These enterprises hatch (their respective breed of) birds and distribute day-old-chicks (DOC) to independent intermediaries, so called “Mother” or “Brooder” Units (MUs), that are spread across the respective countries. MUs rear the chicks for the first five weeks and ensure they are fed and vaccinated. The enterprises provide a packaged service that includes required inputs, such as feed and vaccinations, and provide additional in-person training and support to MUs through Technical Advisors. After four to five weeks, MUs sell the chicks to nearby SHFs who are anticipated to rear them for sale and/or household consumption. The impact evaluation assesses how owning dual-purpose chickens affects SHF livelihoods.

Private Intervention Details:
Theory of Change:

The intervention relies on the agri-businesses’ field staff to identify and facilitate setting-up MUs in local communities, which then sell dual-purpose chickens to SHFs. A key assumption is that the program attracts sufficient demand among SHFs to purchase dual-purpose chickens from the MUs. It is expected that a large proportion of primary poultry keepers are female. Once SHFs own dual-purpose birds, a key element of the program theory is that these birds grow faster, lay more eggs and are equally expensive to rear as alternative, local chicken breeds. SHFs owning such dual-purposes birds are expected to increase their consumption of chicken meat and eggs compared to SHFs who do not own these birds, ultimately contributing to a more diverse diet, especially for women and young children (under the age of five). In addition, a proportion of SHFs is expected to sell (part of) their poultry produce, contributing towards an increased income from poultry rearing. SHFs may use this additional income in a multitude of ways, including for purchasing more nutrient-rich foods for themselves and their children, again contributing towards a more diverse diet. Further, as most poultry keepers are expected to be female, increased income through sales may shift intra-household decision making and lead to an increase in the proportion of women considered empowered. As benefits from owning these dual-purpose chickens are accrued, SHFs are hypothesized to increase the size of their flocks and multiply their outcomes. Over time, these channels lead to measurable impacts in household income, female decision-making, and women and young children’s nutrition.

Multiple Treatment Arms Evaluated?

Implementing Agency

Name of Organization:
World Poultry Foundation - in collaboration with local private sector agri-businesses
Type of Organization:
Private for profit organization

Program Funder

Name of Organization:
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
Type of Organization:

Intervention Timing

Intervention or Program Started at time of Registration?
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End Date:
Evaluation Method

Evaluation Method Overview

Primary (or First) Evaluation Method:
Other (not Listed) Method:
Additional Evaluation Method (If Any):
Difference in difference/fixed effects
Other (not Listed) Method:

Method Details

Details of Evaluation Approach:

The main objective of the evaluation is to estimate the treatment effect on the treated. i.e. to understand how livelihoods of SHFs who own dual-purpose chickens are affected. This is different from estimating the intention-to-treat effect, in which case we would be interested in understanding the effect of having access to these dual-purpose birds.

To establish a counterfactual, we will match confirmed first time purchasers of dual-purpose chickens in treatment communities to SHFs in control communities who are comparable on a set of baseline characteristics. At endline, we will compare outcomes across matched SHF pairs to estimate the causal effect of owning dual-purpose chickens. 

Private Details of Evaluation Approach:
Outcomes (Endpoints):
  1. Productivity/Flock performance (intermediate outcome)
    1. Primary:
      1.  Egg production
    2. Secondary:
      1. Flock size
      2. Egg production per chicken
      3. Chicken expenditure
      4. Time expenditure
      5. Bird mortality rate
  2. Income from poultry (final outcome):
    1. Primary
      1. Income from poultry production
    2. Secondary
      1. Proportion of households that sold eggs
      2. Proportion of households that sold chicken
      3. Income from eggs
      4. Income from chickens
      5. Profitability of chicken-rearing
  3. Nutrition (final outcome):
    1. Primary
      1. Child (under five) meets minimum dietary diversity
      2. Woman meets minimum dietary diversity
    2. Secondary
      1. Egg consumption by children/women
      2. Chicken consumption by children/women
      3. Eggs consumed by household in last 7 days
      4. Chicken consumed by households in last 30 days
      5. Food expenditure
      6. Households level spending on diverse food groups
  4. Women’s Empowerment (final outcome)
    1. Primary
      1. Female Empowerment Score
    2. Secondary
      1. Three individual components of the Female Empowerment Score
      2. Gender Parity index (overall, and by component)
  5. Child Health (final outcome)
    1. Secondary
      1. Child morbidity score
Unit of Analysis:

The primary hypotheses with regards to final outcomes are as follows:

  1. Ownership of dual-purpose birds affects household income from poultry rearing
  2. Ownership of dual-purpose birds affects women and children’s nutrition through a more diverse diet
  3. Ownership of dual-purpose birds affects women empowerment.

This means primary outcomes of categories 2, 3, and 4 (above) will be used to assess social impact of the intervention.

Unit of Intervention or Assignment:
Number of Clusters in Sample:
Tanzania: 180 (110 treatment villages, 70 control villages); Nigeria: 85 (42 treatment villages, 43 control villages)
Number of Individuals in Sample:
Tanzania: Baseline 5,857 (4113 Treat, 1744 Control); Endline: 1400 (600 matched pairs + buffer); Nigeria: Baseline 2,248 (973 Treat, 1273 Control); Endline: 1400 (600 matched pairs + buffer)
Size of Treatment, Control, or Comparison Subsamples:
600 Treatment, 600 Control; We anticipate 300 matched pairs to have children aged below 5

Supplementary Files

Analysis Plan:
IDinsight APMI_Pre-analysis plan_RIDIE.pdf
Other Documents:
Initial Evaluation Design Document : IDinsight Evaluation Design for APMI RIDIE.pdf
Updated Evaluation Design Document - Tanzania: Tanzania evaluation design update RIDIE.pdf
Pre-Analysis Plan Tanzania Evaluation: IDinsight APMI_TZ_Pre-Analysis Plan_RIDIE.pdf

Outcomes Data

The household survey questionnaire contains two parts: the primary and supplementary survey. The primary survey includes modules on household demographics; poultry practices; poultry-related expenses; attitudes and perceptions towards rearing chickens; women’s decision-making in chicken-related activities; and women and children’s dietary recall. The supplemental survey contains a subset of the questions of the primary survey, which are dependent upon the gender of the secondary respondent.
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Treatment Assignment Data

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Data Analysis

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Study Materials

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Registration Category

Registration Category:
Prospective, Category 1: Data for measuring impacts have not been collected

Completion Overview

Intervention Completion Date:
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Unit of Analysis:
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Total Observations in Final Sample:
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Preliminary Report:
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Data Availability

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Other Materials

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Description of Changes:

Study Stopped